Not dark, but little sunshine
The Billett Consultancy’s annual survey of clients’ advertising spend has revealed that total media budgets are set to rise by 1.4 per cent next year, indicating that the current downturn will flatten out.
But Billett Consultancy managing director Andy Pearch warns: “As yet there is no evidence of renewed buoyancy.”
Billett’s clients together spend &£1.8bn a year on display advertising in the UK. Of the 70 clients that responded to the survey – conducted after the events of September 11 – 42 per cent said they will spend more in 2002 than this year, while 35 per cent said budgets will remain the same and 23 per cent said they would spend less.
In last year’s survey, media budgets were forecast to rise by four per cent in 2001 – in reality they have fallen by six per cent.
Pearch says: “It shows how sensitive the market is to economic conditions, and it is noticeable this year that a number of large advertisers have yet to finalise their budgets for 2002. We think 2002 will start off in decline, then flatten out in the second quarter, with a return to positive growth in September. But no one knows [what will happen] as it’s so dependent on the economy.”
The research shows that there will be an upturn in packaged goods, household and retail ad spend, while the travel, computers, telecoms and business sectors are planning to spend less.
Breaking down media spend – which in total is to rise by more than one per cent – spending on TV will remain static, national press will be down two per cent, radio will rise by four per cent and outdoor will be up two per cent.
Pearch says: “The big loser is national press, as the medium most exposed to travel and computing. Newspapers take a large share of these two sectors. There also appears to be a mood among some retailers to switch funds out of press, traditionally a strong area, and into areas such as radio.”
The survey also asked advertisers what advertising activities they would be doing more or less of in the next three years. More than 50 per cent said they were interested in interactive media; more than 40 per cent said they would explore SMS messaging and more than 40 per cent said they intended to use TV sponsorship next year.
Pearch says: “All three of these are growth areas. Advertisers are moving away from traditional TV spots and press space towards more innovative media. It’s as if consumers expect more from their media and advertisers seem to be responding to that.”
Separately, Billett forecasts that advertising revenue at ITV will be down by three per cent next year, while Channel 4 will see a rise of one per cent, and Channel 5 an increase of three per cent. But the biggest rise in advertising revenue will come on satellite, cable and digital channels, which will get seven per cent more.
