Fall in ITV revenue forecast

ITV’s revenue is likely to fall from 71 per cent of TV revenue in 1995 to just 60 per cent in 2000, according to an agency forecast.

ITV’s revenue in 2000 will increase to 1.68m from 1.62m in 1995, which is a fall in real terms once inflation is taken into account, says J Walter Thompson’s media development director James Walker.

He believes several factors will reduce ITV’s share of revenue:

ITV’s revenue has been supported in the Nineties by new advertisers from the information and business technology, telephony and financial services fields. These have masked a decline from packaged goods companies’ revenue and as these sectors mature they will spend less on TV.

Coverage achieved by TV is falling yearly. The coverage achieved by 400 ratings, the TV audience measurement standard, on ITV and C4 is dropping by one per cent each year. Advertisers will move into other media rather than chase declining coverage.

There is a realisation that spending more on TV means hitting the same heavy viewers time and time again.

These effects will be increased by a predicted decline in TV viewing as other leisure options become more popular and the UK comes out of recession. “ITV is doing very well,” says Walker. “But the key to business success is to understand how quickly markets can change.”

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