Television advertising revenue is set to grow in 2004 while press advertising volumes and revenue will be down, according to media forecasts from Billetts Media Consulting.
The company estimates that TV revenue will increase three per cent during 2004 compared with this year, when it increased only 0.5 per cent. The Olympics and the Euro 2004 football tournament are expected to bolster growth.
Billetts believes advertisers will benefit from low inflation of one per cent, which is forecast to keep the value of TV advertising below 1996 prices. ITV’s ad revenue is set to increase by only 0.3 per cent; Channel 4’s by two per cent; Five’s by six per cent; and multi-channel TV’s by 11 per cent. Billetts expects ITV’s share of commercial revenue to continue to decline to about 50 per cent from 51 per cent for 2003; Five’s to remain static; Channel 4’s to fall to 19.8 per cent and multi-channel’s to increase to 20.3 per cent.
In newspapers, advertising volume is set to drop two per cent, and revenue one per cent compared with 2003. But the cost-per-thousand rate is expected to rise by up to three per cent as circulations continue to decline.
Billetts chief executive Andy Pearch says: “I think some of the issues facing media – the introduction of the contract rights renewal remedy; the new programme chiefs for Five and Channel 4; the possible sale of The Daily Telegraph – will change the industry quite significantly.
“It looks as though there will be a shake-up of the press market and that the TV market will become more competitive, which can only be good news for advertisers,” he says.