Pass the towel, bath-time’s over

Is 2004, to extend a well-worn metaphor, the year of the bathmat? Certainly, there are already encouraging signs of recovery.

Aegis, for one, has signalled optimism with a new year message proclaiming an upswing in advertising revenue. As owner of Carat, Europe’s largest media buying shop, this prediction has to be treated with some respect; increasingly Aegis is seen in City circles as the barometer of advertising’s fortunes.

Mind you, closer examination of the predictions reveals little that is either original or euphoria-inducing about them. In most respects they are a closely patterned retread of figures produced by rival media house Zenith Optimedia. Growth is expected to reach about 4.7 per cent globally, reflecting the US trend; the Far East will be slightly higher (six per cent), Continental Europe slightly lower (3.6 per cent). All the same, that’s well ahead of inflation, and last year’s performance. More interestingly from the point of view of the rest of the marketing community, Aegis ascribes little of this upsurge to the much-touted ‘quadrennial’ effect. The presidential elections, Olympics and European soccer championship will certainly have a positive effect, but Aegis emphatically believes most of the growth will come from a sustainable corporate recovery rather than from a one-off boost.

Good news, too, on the retail front, where an upbeat trading statement from Next has done much to cauterise the spreading despondency caused (or at least catalysed) by WH Smith’s more woeful revelations. For all that new chief executive Kate Swann had squarely placed the blame for poor performance on her own company (promptly sacking her head of retail to prove the point), industry commentators seemed determined to cite WH Smith as conclusive evidence of a bad Christmas, with more gloom to come as the consumer-propped economy sagged.

Now there’s no telling what exactly will happen to consumer spending habits, which will be conditioned by such unpredictable macroeconomic influences as Bank of England interest rates and the state of the residential housing market. But the message from Next, which has upgraded its profit forecast, is that well-run companies need have no immediate fear of consumers deserting them.

Another new year portent of change, though very different, comes from the revelation that one of the UK’s highest-profile marketers, Andrew Harrison, has just got himself a new job. After nearly four years at Nestlé Rowntree, where he presided over a string of successes, including the relaunch of Yorkie, Harrison is taking over from the well-regarded Ken Wood as managing director of Müller Dairy UK. It’s a good switch for Harrison, who achieves the goal – coveted by many marketers – of senior management responsibility in a serious company. Make no mistake, however: Wood’s will be a hard act to follow. It is reasonable to describe Müller as one of the most successful food companies in the UK, and Wood as the chief architect of that success over 18 years. Wood, who remains non-executive chairman of the UK arm while taking on wider international responsibilities within the German business, will be keen to protect his heritage. Harrison will also be mindful of the very different business culture prevailing in a private, family business; as opposed to the huge publicly listed corporations that have so far shaped his career.

News, pages 5 and 6; Cover story, page 20