ZenithOptimedia says ad market to stabilise in 2010

The recession caused an “unprecedented” downturn in advertising revenues this year but there are signs that the market is stabilising and will grow next year, according to ZenithOptimedia.

The Publicis owned media agency says it expects global ad income to drop 10.2% to $443.7bn (£271.5bn) this year, hit by the “worst recession since the Great Depression”.

However, the media agency has raised its growth forecast for next year, from 0.4% to 0.9%, its first 2010 upgrade in 18 months.

Zenith adds it expects the market will continue to “improve steadily” over the next three years and will reach “normal” 5% growth in 2012.

Despite global increases, the agency says Western European and US ad markets will continue to decline next year, falling to $106.2bn (£64.9bn) and $153.3bn (£93.8bn) from $106.7bn (£65.3bn) and $156.9bn (£96bn) respectively.

Television ad spend is forecast to fall 7.6% to $171.5bn (£104.9bn) this year, but will see its market share increase from 38.2% to 39.2% as people turn to the “cheap but absorbing form of entertainment” in the recession. The medium is expected to grow to $175bn (£107.1bn) next year.

Spending on newspapers and magazines is expected to drop to $101.9bn (£62.3bn) and $45.1bn (£27.6bn) this year and again to $97.8bn (£59.8bn) and $43.1bn (£26.4bn) respectively in 2010.

Online is the only medium that has grown this year, up from $49.3bn (£30.2bn) last year to $54bn (£33bn), and is forecast to grow again to $60bn (£36.8bn) in 2010.

The agency says the internet to overtake newspapers to become the world’s second-largest advertising medium by 2015.

The sunnier forecast from Zenith tells a similar story to a recent study by Nielsen that showed that the decline in advertising spending is slowing.

Latest from Marketing Week

NOT REGISTERED? IT'S FREE, QUICK AND EASY!

Access Marketing Week’s wealth of insight, analysis and opinion that will help you do your job better.

Register and receive the best content from the only UK title 100% dedicated to serving marketers' needs.

We’ll ask you just a few questions about what you do and where you work. The more we know about our visitors, the better and more relevant content we can provide for them. And, yes, knowing our audience better helps us find commercial partners too. Don't worry, we won't share your information with other parties, unless you give us permission to do so.

Register now

THE BEST CONTENT

Our award winning editorial team (PPA Digital Brand of the Year) ask the big questions about the biggest issues on everything from strategy through to execution to help you navigate the fast moving modern marketing landscape.

THE BIGGEST ISSUES

From the opportunities and challenges of emerging technology to the need for greater effectiveness, from the challenge of measurement to building a marketing team fit for the future, we are your guide.

PERSONAL AND PROFESSIONAL DEVELOPMENT

Information, inspiration and advice from the marketing world and beyond that will help you develop as a marketer and as a leader.

Having problems?

Contact us on +44 (0)20 7292 3703 or email customerservices@marketingweek.com

If you are looking for our Jobs site, please click here