UK advertising recession predicted to end

UK advertising expenditure is predicted to return to growth in the autumn, the first uplift in over two years, according to data published by the Advertising Association (AA).

Advertising spend is expected to increase by 2.8% in the third quarter of 2010, the first increase since the start of 2008.

The positive outlook mirrors the optimism expressed in the last Bellwether report, which found marketing budgets decreased by 7% in the final quarter of 2009 compared to 15% in the previous quarter. It also predicted 2010 marketing budgets are set higher than in 2009.

Despite the positive forecast, 2009 ad spend is predicted to fall 12.7% year-on-year at current prices, the worst slump since the AA and advertising data firm Warc began the survey in 1982.

Tim Lefroy (pictured), chief executive of the AA, says: “The underlying data shows not just the painful recession effect overall but the dynamic reshaping of the UK advertising landscape.”

Third quarter data shows online spend increased 4.2% and cinema spend was up 10.2%. All other channels saw a drop in spend.

The AA/Warc report is based on data gathered from a range of media sources covering print, cinema, TV and digital advertising.

The quarterly figures for Q4 2009 are due to be released in March 2010.

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