ZenithOptimedia: global ad growth forecast revised upwards

ZenithOptimedia has revised its forecast for global advertising growth upwards by more than 1% for 2010.

The Publicis-owned media agency now says that global ad growth will jump by 2.2% rather than the 0.9% it predicted in December to $4.56 bn (£3bn) in its latest quarterly report.

This is the agency’s second upgrade in a row, after 18 months of consecutive downgrades.

Looking at the developed markets, which include Western Europe, the report says that “after suffering a deep 12.1% decline in 2009, the developed markets are stabilising” and forecasts 0.8% ad spend decline in 2010 for these territories.

The report points to specific pockets of recovery, such as the UK television market, up 7% in Q1 this year and predicted to be up at least 16.2% in Q2, and says it expects the recovery to become more general “as the year progresses.”

It forecasts 5.7% ad spend growth for Central and Eastern Europe, 4.7% for the Middle East, 9.3% for Latin America and 10% for Asia Pacific (excluding Japan) in 2010.

The report predicts global ad growth of 4.1% (originally 3.9%) in 2011 and 5.3% growth (originally 4.8%) in 2012.

Looking at trends, the report says that the internet increased its share of the global ad market from 10.5% in 2008 to 12.6% in 2009, driven by paid search.

Display’s share of total internet spend fell but new formats, such as internet video, are expected to help it regain momentum. The internet’s total share of ad spend is expected to increase to 17.1% in 2012.

Television suffered less than other media with ad spend, down 6.7%. but market share rose from 38.1% to 39.4%. Television’s share is expected to reach 40.6% in 2012, thanks to growth in the developing markets.

Newspapers and magazines have suffered most in the downturn, with newspaper’s share expected to fall to 19.4% in 2012 and magazine’s to drop to 8.6%.


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