The prediction is close to the revised forecast made by Publicis Groupe’s ZenithOptimedia earlier today of growth of 0.9% for next year
GroupM said that the growth will come after an expected 6.6% drop in worldwide spend to $445bn (£272bn) this year. There will be a slight increase to $448bn (£273bn) in 2010; a 1.4% increase on previous global predictions.
The BRIIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia and China) are expected to lead the recovery while ad spending in the U.S. and Western Europe will probably lag behind, according to the “This Year, Next Year” report. The network has already predicted that the UK advertising industry may come out of recession earlier than other countries and see a better 2009 and 2010 than previously predicted.
GroupM futures director, Adam Smith, says: “We expect a pronounced V-shaped recovery which is already underway in China. In the US and many mature economies, deleveraging and sluggish job creation will likely postpone recovery until 2011.”
He adds: “There are signs from around the world of confidence returning to the financial services and automotive sectors which have been hit hardest, though this has yet to translate into bigger marketing appropriations.”
GroupM is now predicting global ad revenue growth to return to annual growth of at least 6% between 2011and 2014.
Meanwhile, Interpublic Group’s Mediabrands is forecasting advertising to grow by 6% on a global basis in US Dollar terms, though it does not give detailed figures.
The company released its predictions with its research consultancy Magna, suggesting that “the great recession of 2008-2009 is at last receding in most parts of the world.”
Magna’s global director of forecasting, Brian Wieser, says: “A rebound is likely during 2010, when advertising should grow 6% on a global basis in US Dollar terms, on pace to sustained 5% growth for each year through 2015.”
ZenithOptimedia said it expects global ad income to drop 10.2% to $443.7bn (£271.5bn) this year, hit by the “worst recession since the Great Depression”.