The growth of online will drive UK ad spend to grow as much as 37.9% to £22bn by 2019 despite a drop in classified recruitment ads, according to a report published by the Advertising Association (AA).
The report, compiled by the World Advertising Research Center (WARC), also gives a “worst case” scenario for the industry with growth of just 16.8% to £18.6m from £16m in 2007 – provided there is no recession.
The AA, which represents 31 trade bodies in the advertising and promotional marketing sectors, says it does not expect a “major recession” to hit the UK within the forecast period. But it notes that some forecasters do foresee a recession in the near future and this possibility should not be ruled out. It warns: “Should this situation come to pass, all advertising expenditure forecasts would be adversely affected”.
It adds that increased spend will be drive by the “dominant force” of online, with its share of display advertising set to increase from 3.9% in 2006 to 12% in 2019. Its share of advertising taken in the classified sector is also expected to rise sharply over the period, with a compact annual growth rate of 10 to 11.6%.
Over the forecast period, display advertising and classified recruitment are expected to lose share of total advertising. Display is expected to take 60% of advertising in 2019, down from 68% in 2006. Classified recruitment advertising is expected to lose revenue in real terms, as well as share dropping from 8% in 2006 to 5%. However, other classified will benefit, driven by the growth of paid-for search advertising, growing from a 24% share of spend to 34% in 2019.